Johnson Quantile-Parameterized Distributions

被引:5
|
作者
Hadlock, Christopher C. [1 ]
Bickel, J. Eric [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Texas Austin, Grad Program Operat Res & Ind Engn, Austin, TX 78712 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
uncertainty; subjective probability; modeling; decision analysis; quantile function; MATHEMATICAL CONTRIBUTIONS; SUPPLEMENT; EVOLUTION; MEMOIR;
D O I
10.1287/deca.2016.0343
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
It is common decision analysis practice to elicit quantiles of continuous uncertainties and then fit a continuous probability distribution to the corresponding probabilityquantile pairs. This process often requires curve fitting and the best-fit distribution will often not honor the assessed points. By strategically extending the Johnson Distribution System, we develop a new distribution system that honors any symmetric percentile triplet of quantile assessments (e.g., the 10th-50th-90th) in conjunction with specified support bounds. Further, our new system is directly parameterized by the assessed quantiles and support bounds, eliminating the need to apply a fitting procedure. Our new system is practical, flexible, and, as we demonstrate, able to match the shapes of numerous commonly named distributions.
引用
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页码:35 / 64
页数:30
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