机构:
Univ Texas Austin, Grad Program Operat Res & Ind Engn, Austin, TX 78712 USAUniv Texas Austin, Grad Program Operat Res & Ind Engn, Austin, TX 78712 USA
Hadlock, Christopher C.
[1
]
Bickel, J. Eric
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机构:
Univ Texas Austin, Grad Program Operat Res & Ind Engn, Austin, TX 78712 USAUniv Texas Austin, Grad Program Operat Res & Ind Engn, Austin, TX 78712 USA
Bickel, J. Eric
[1
]
机构:
[1] Univ Texas Austin, Grad Program Operat Res & Ind Engn, Austin, TX 78712 USA
It is common decision analysis practice to elicit quantiles of continuous uncertainties and then fit a continuous probability distribution to the corresponding probabilityquantile pairs. This process often requires curve fitting and the best-fit distribution will often not honor the assessed points. By strategically extending the Johnson Distribution System, we develop a new distribution system that honors any symmetric percentile triplet of quantile assessments (e.g., the 10th-50th-90th) in conjunction with specified support bounds. Further, our new system is directly parameterized by the assessed quantiles and support bounds, eliminating the need to apply a fitting procedure. Our new system is practical, flexible, and, as we demonstrate, able to match the shapes of numerous commonly named distributions.