The Impact of Household Dynamics on Land-Use Change in China: Past Experiences and Future Implications

Population is the main driver of land-system and environmental change. However, population is usually treated as a variable that only considers the population number, and multi-dimensional population structure is largely ignored. There has been a systematic transition of population structure in the past several decades, including changes in household structure, increasing aging populations, increasing divorce rates, and increasing human migration. All of these changes have direct or indirect impacts on land use and environmental issues. Here, taking China as an example and using statistical analysis, namely the Mann-Kendall trend test and a land-use-transition matrix, we examine the relationship between household dynamics and land-use change in China by examining changes in household structure and land-use changes in China between 1980 and 2020. The results show the following three groups of findings. (1) The number of households increased by 130.95% from 1980 to 2020, while the population only increased by 42.83%; the size of households decreased from 4.41 to 2.62 in China from 1982 to 2020; and the household dynamics varied from province to province, which is affected by urbanization rate and economic development. (2) Birth rates, divorce rates, population aging, and migration all affect household structure, which directly or indirectly affect changes in land-use systems. (3) The changes in China's land use are interlinked and interact with changes in household structure, which is evident in the increase in Residential land use and the abandonment of arable land. The rising household number increased the area of urban and rural settlement, leading to the fragmentation of cultivated land and the reduction of ecological land. To regulate land-use change for sustainable development, future land-use planning should take into account the effect of household dynamics and should reduce the negative effects of household dynamics on land systems and environmental change.