The Relationship between Measured Visitor Density and Perceived Crowding Revisited: Predicting Perceived Crowding in Outdoor Recreation

Protected areas around the globe face increasing visitation numbers and crowding, a situation exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although measured visitor density and perceived crowding are strongly related, analyses of this relationship are lacking. We argue that measured visitor density serves as a reliable and objective indicator of perceived crowding. This study therefore examined the effects of visitation numbers, perceived encounters, and expectations on perceived crowding in the Bavarian Forest National Park (Germany). Automated visitor counts at six park locations were linked to data from an on-site crowding survey conducted in 2021. A predictive model and visitation thresholds were calculated using a logistic regression, which showed that visitation numbers are a well-suited predictor of crowding. The results indicated a strong association between measured visitor density and perceived crowding, moderated by site-specific conditions. The calculated thresholds provide a valuable instrument that can be used to inform the public in advance about peak visiting times.