Renal outcomes in older adults with antineutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody-associated vasculitis: a new prediction model

Introduction: Older patients with antineutrophil cytoplasmic autoantibody-associated vasculitis (AAV) commonly experience renal impairment and poor prognoses. This study aimed to establish a risk-scoring system for predicting composite renal outcomes in older patients with AAV.Methods: This retrospective observational study included all patients with AAV hospitalized in a single-center tertiary hospital in China between January 2013 and April 2022. Patients aged = 65 years were defined as older adults, and short-term composite renal outcomes included a = 25% reduction in eGFR (for AKI), renal replacement therapy, provision of renal replacement therapy (long-term dialysis, kidney transplant, or sustained eGFR < 15 ml/min/1.73m), or all-cause mortality. Patients were randomly divided into development and validation cohorts (2:1). Logistic regression analysis was performed in the development cohort to analyze risk factors. The scoring system was established accordingly and further validated in the validation cohort.Results: 1203 patients were enrolled in the study, among whom the older adult group accounted for 36% with a mean age of 71 years. The older adult group had a worse prognosis, a higher mortality rate, a higher rate of end-stage renal disease, and worsening renal function. Logistic regression showed that age > 75 years, chronic heart disease, and elevated serum creatinine and D-dimer values were risk factors for poor prognosis in patients with AAV. The development and validation cohorts in patients with AAV produced area under the curve values of 0.82 (0.78-0.86) and 0.83 (0.77-0.89), respectively.Conclusion: We established a risk-scoring system based on baseline clinical characteristics to predict composite renal outcomes in patients with AAV. Our results suggest that more attention should be paid to older patients with severe renal impairment and active inflammation.