Influence of Industrial Transfer on Carbon Emissions in China: a Spatial Spillover Perspective

Industrial transfer has become a breakthrough for regional economic upgrading, while the carbon emissions involved in the industrial transfer are yet to be explored. Based on this, we analyzed the impact of the industrial transfer on carbon emissions for China's 30 provincial-level regions during 2007-2018 using spatial panel econometric models. The results show a significant positive spatial correlation of carbon emissions, whereas the negative spatial correlation of industrial transfer gradually appears, and the local distribution of carbon emissions and industrial transfer is mainly characterized by high-high agglomeration. Furthermore, overall industrial transfer shows significant positive direct and negative indirect effects on carbon emissions. There are negative direct and spatial spillover relationships between industrial transfer and carbon emissions in the industrial transfer-out regions, while the industrial transfer-in regions show a positive effect. The transfer of industries, in particular, does not imply the transfer of carbon emissions; however, the balance of industrial restructuring and technological progress during the industrial transfer process can more effectively control and reduce carbon emissions.