Rockburst risk assessment model based on improved catastrophe progression method and its application

Aiming to accurately assess the intensity of rockburst in coal mines, we propose a rockburst risk assessment model using the improved catastrophe progression method based on its sudden, complex, and non-linear characteristics. A risk assessment indicator system for rockburst is established based on the occurrence conditions of rockburst, which comprehensively considers 10 main influencing factors. We introduce a combined weighting method consisting of the variation coefficient method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight and ranking of evaluation indicators, which improves the catastrophe progression method. Finally, by applying 10 coal mine cases into the established model and comparing them with the unimproved catastrophe progression method and several other risk assessment methods, we conclude that the accuracy of the model in assessing rockburst intensity level has increased by a maximum of 42.85%. Our work proves the effectiveness and practicality of the risk assessment model, which can provide good theoretical guidance for assessing rockburst intensity level in coal mines. Furthermore, based on the model risk assessment results and comparative analysis, this paper provides feasible suggestions for reducing the intensity of rockbursts.