Increases in drug overdose deaths in Norway and the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction: Little international comparative work exists describing pandemic-related spikes in overdose and related implications for drug and public health policy. We compared increases in overdose deaths during the pandemic in Norway and the United States, two countries in the top 10 for per-capita overdose mortality, yet with very different approaches to the pandemic, healthcare and drug policy. Methods: We examined monthly overdoses in 2020 versus baseline rates (the monthly average across 2017-2019). We compared excess overdose mortality to shifts in human mobility and social interaction, measured using cellphone-based mobility data, an indicator of the societal response to the pandemic. Results: Both the US and Norway saw large magnitude exacerbations in overdose mortality during the pandemic-related lockdowns, reaching 46.8% and 57.0% above baseline, respectively. Maximum increases occurred 2-3 months after peak reductions in mobility, suggesting lagged mechanisms. While overdose mortality returned to baseline relatively quickly in Norway, rates remained elevated in the US to the end of 2020. Conclusions: Spikes in overdose mortality in both contexts may relate to disruptions in healthcare access and the drug supply becoming more potent. Norway's quicker return to baseline may reflect more robust access to harm reduction and addiction-related healthcare services. Nevertheless, it is notable that even in Norway - with universal access to high-quality services, low COVID-19 rates, and a highly effective public health infrastructure - a greater than 50% spike in overdose deaths was still seen at the onset of lockdown measures. This may have important implications for future pandemic and disaster planning.