Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and Its Economic Implications in Northern Permafrost Regions in the 21st Century

Climate warming increases carbon assimilation by plant growth and also accelerates permafrost CO2 emissions; however, the overall ecosystem CO2 balance in permafrost regions and its economic impacts remain largely unknown. Here we synthesize in situ measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange to assess current and future carbon budgets across the northern permafrost regions using the random forest model and calculate their economic implications under the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) based on the PAGE-ICE model. We estimate a contemporary CO2 emission of 1,539 Tg C during the nongrowing season and CO2 uptake of 2,330 Tg C during the growing season, respectively. Air temperature and precipitation exert the most control over the net ecosystem exchange in the nongrowing season, while leaf area index plays a more important role in the growing season. This region will probably shift to a carbon source after 2,057 under SSP5-8.5, with a net emission of 17 Pg C during 2057-2100. The net economic benefits of CO2 budget will be $4.5, $5.0, and $2.9 trillion under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively. Our results imply that a high-emission pathway will greatly reduce the economic benefit of carbon assimilation in northern permafrost regions.