The Gaza War and the Region

Hamas's 7 October 2023 attack and the subsequent war in Gaza has forced the Palestinian question back to the top of the Middle Eastern agenda after years of neglect. The crisis has also confirmed Hamas's identity as an agent of resistance rather than governance and shattered Israel's perceptions of its own power, the competence of its security services and political leadership, and the manageability of its immediate neighbourhood. Israeli forces may well destroy Hamas's advanced military capabilities and decapitate its Gaza-based command, but they are unlikely to obliterate Hamas as a social, political and ideological actor, and a determined insurgency. In Arab forums, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will probably inhibit normalisation with Israel and overshadow other conflicts. Iran does not have an immediate interest in expanding the war and has other options through partners for signalling support for Hamas. The war broadly benefits Tehran by affirming its forward-defence strategy, re-energising its axis of resistance and shaking its regional rivals.