Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval

被引:0
|
作者
Okamoto, Hiroshi [1 ]
Yoshimoto, Iku [2 ]
Kato, Sota [3 ]
Ahsan, Budrul [3 ]
Shinohara, Shuji [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Dept Bioengn, Tokyo, Japan
[2] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Arts & Sci, Dept Adv Social & Int Studies, Tokyo, Japan
[3] Tokyo Fdn Policy Res, Tokyo, Japan
[4] Tokyo Denki Univ, Sch Sci & Engn, Saitama, Japan
关键词
HEAVY TAILS; TIME; WARS; MODELS; SIZE;
D O I
10.1038/s41598-023-50002-w
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
War is an extreme form of collective human behaviour characterized by coordinated violence. We show that this nature of war is substantiated in the temporal patterns of conflict occurrence that obey power law. The focal metric is the interconflict interval (ICI), the interval between the end of a conflict in a dyad (i.e. a pair of states) and the start of the subsequent conflict in the same dyad. Using elaborate statistical tests, we confirmed that ICI samples compiled from the history of interstate conflicts from 1816 to 2014 followed a power-law distribution. We then demonstrate that the power-law properties of ICIs can be explained by a hypothetical model assuming an information-theoretic formulation of the Clausewitz thesis on war: the use of force is a means of interstate communication. Our findings help us to understand the nature of wars between regular states, the significance of which has increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
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页数:18
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