Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval

被引:0
|
作者
Okamoto, Hiroshi [1 ]
Yoshimoto, Iku [2 ]
Kato, Sota [3 ]
Ahsan, Budrul [3 ]
Shinohara, Shuji [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Tokyo, Sch Engn, Dept Bioengn, Tokyo, Japan
[2] Univ Tokyo, Grad Sch Arts & Sci, Dept Adv Social & Int Studies, Tokyo, Japan
[3] Tokyo Fdn Policy Res, Tokyo, Japan
[4] Tokyo Denki Univ, Sch Sci & Engn, Saitama, Japan
关键词
HEAVY TAILS; TIME; WARS; MODELS; SIZE;
D O I
10.1038/s41598-023-50002-w
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
War is an extreme form of collective human behaviour characterized by coordinated violence. We show that this nature of war is substantiated in the temporal patterns of conflict occurrence that obey power law. The focal metric is the interconflict interval (ICI), the interval between the end of a conflict in a dyad (i.e. a pair of states) and the start of the subsequent conflict in the same dyad. Using elaborate statistical tests, we confirmed that ICI samples compiled from the history of interstate conflicts from 1816 to 2014 followed a power-law distribution. We then demonstrate that the power-law properties of ICIs can be explained by a hypothetical model assuming an information-theoretic formulation of the Clausewitz thesis on war: the use of force is a means of interstate communication. Our findings help us to understand the nature of wars between regular states, the significance of which has increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
引用
收藏
页数:18
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval
    Hiroshi Okamoto
    Iku Yoshimoto
    Sota Kato
    Budrul Ahsan
    Shuji Shinohara
    [J]. Scientific Reports, 13
  • [2] Power-Law Testing for Fault Attributes Distributions
    Kolyukhin, Dmitry
    Torabi, Anita
    [J]. PURE AND APPLIED GEOPHYSICS, 2013, 170 (12) : 2173 - 2183
  • [3] Testing power-law cosmology with galaxy clusters
    Zhu, Zong-Hong
    Hu, M.
    Alcaniz, J. S.
    Liu, Y. -X.
    [J]. ASTRONOMY & ASTROPHYSICS, 2008, 483 (01) : 15 - 18
  • [4] Power-Law Testing for Fault Attributes Distributions
    Dmitry Kolyukhin
    Anita Torabi
    [J]. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2013, 170 : 2173 - 2183
  • [5] Generalized Confidence Interval for the Scale Parameter of the Power-Law Process
    Wang, Bing Xing
    Xie, Min
    Zhou, Jun Xing
    [J]. COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS, 2013, 42 (05) : 898 - 906
  • [6] TESTING POWER-LAW RELAXATION SCENARIOS IN A METASTABLE LIQUID
    Sen Gupta, Bhaskar
    Das, Shankar P.
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MODERN PHYSICS B, 2012, 26 (29):
  • [7] Power-law inflation satisfies Penrose's Weyl curvature hypothesis
    D' Amico, Guido
    Kaloper, Nemanja
    [J]. PHYSICAL REVIEW D, 2022, 106 (10)
  • [8] On power-law fluids with the power-law index proportional to the pressure
    Malek, J.
    Rajagopal, K. R.
    Zabensky, J.
    [J]. APPLIED MATHEMATICS LETTERS, 2016, 62 : 118 - 123
  • [9] A Robust Method for Statistical Testing of Empirical Power-Law Distributions
    Garbarino, Davide
    Tozzo, Veronica
    Vian, Andrea
    Barla, Annalisa
    [J]. ALGORITHMS AND MODELS FOR THE WEB GRAPH, WAW 2020, 2020, 12091 : 145 - 157
  • [10] THE VECTOR POWER-LAW CALCULUS WITH APPLICATIONS IN POWER-LAW FLUID FLOW
    Yang, Xiao-Jun
    [J]. THERMAL SCIENCE, 2020, 24 (06): : 4289 - 4302