Tidal Currents in Douglas Channel, British Columbia: Evaluation and Prediction

Douglas Channel is the principal shipping route between the town of Kitimat and the Pacific Ocean. Prediction of near-surface currents is crucial for safe tanker navigation and cleaning-up oil spills. Three years of current velocity data were collected at two moorings located 30 km apart. Spectral, wavelet, and harmonic analysis of measured currents throughout the upper (40-m) and lower (50-358 m) water columns indicated the predominant influence of semidiurnal (SD) tidal currents. In the upper layer, wind and density flows resulted in considerable seasonal and interannual variability of these currents. Analysis of the SD variance reveals three major components: barotropic, coherent baroclinic, and random baroclinic. The predictability of near-surface currents depends on the relative contribution and stability of the first two components. Tidal constants estimated for one year were used to predict currents for two other years; we found that at the mooring closer to the entrance of Douglas Channel, 80 to 89% of the SD energy in the upper layer and 89-93% in the lower layer can be forecasted, while closer to the two channel head, these numbers are smaller: 55-70% and 79-89%, respectively.