Enhancing stock market anomalies with machine learning

被引:6
|
作者
Azevedo, Vitor [1 ]
Hoegner, Christopher [2 ]
机构
[1] Tech Univ Kaiserslautern, Dept Business Studies & Econ, Gottlieb Daimler Str 42, D-67663 Kaiserslautern, Germany
[2] McKinsey & Co Inc, Sophienstr 26, D-80333 Munich, Germany
关键词
Anomalies; Machine learning models; Efficient market hypothesis; Asset pricing models; SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE; CROSS-SECTION; PRESIDENTIAL-ADDRESS; MOVEMENT DIRECTION; INFORMATION; EQUILIBRIUM; RISK; PORTFOLIOS; EFFICIENCY; RETURNS;
D O I
10.1007/s11156-022-01099-z
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
We examine the predictability of 299 capital market anomalies enhanced by 30 machine learning approaches and over 250 models in a dataset with more than 500 million firm-month anomaly observations. We find significant monthly (out-of-sample) returns of around 1.8-2.0%, and over 80% of the models yield returns equal to or larger than our linearly constructed baseline factor. For the best performing models, the risk-adjusted returns are significant across alternative asset pricing models, considering transaction costs with round-trip costs of up to 2% and including only anomalies after publication. Our results indicate that non-linear models can reveal market inefficiencies (mispricing) that are hard to conciliate with risk-based explanations.
引用
收藏
页码:195 / 230
页数:36
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [41] Stock Market Index Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Techniques
    Saboor, Abdus
    Hussain, Arif
    Agbley, Bless Lord Y.
    ul Haq, Amin
    Li, Jian Ping
    Kumar, Rajesh
    [J]. INTELLIGENT AUTOMATION AND SOFT COMPUTING, 2023, 37 (02): : 1325 - 1344
  • [42] Machine learning, anomalies, and the expected market return: Evidence from China
    Du, Qingjie
    Wang, Yang
    Wei, Chishen
    Wei, K. C. John
    [J]. PACIFIC-BASIN FINANCE JOURNAL, 2023, 82
  • [43] Stock return anomalies and individual investors in the Korean stock market
    Jang, Jeewon
    [J]. PACIFIC-BASIN FINANCE JOURNAL, 2017, 46 : 141 - 157
  • [44] Empirical analysis: stock market prediction via extreme learning machine
    Xiaodong Li
    Haoran Xie
    Ran Wang
    Yi Cai
    Jingjing Cao
    Feng Wang
    Huaqing Min
    Xiaotie Deng
    [J]. Neural Computing and Applications, 2016, 27 : 67 - 78
  • [45] Stock Market Prediction using Text-based Machine Learning
    Jordan, Tristan
    Elgazzar, Heba
    [J]. 2020 IEEE INTERNATIONAL IOT, ELECTRONICS AND MECHATRONICS CONFERENCE (IEMTRONICS 2020), 2020, : 322 - 326
  • [46] Sustainable Stock Market Prediction Framework Using Machine Learning Models
    Garcia Penalvo, Francisco Jose
    Maan, Tamanna
    Singh, Sunil K.
    Kumar, Sudhakar
    Arya, Varsha
    Chui, Kwok Tai
    Singh, Gaurav Pratap
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF SOFTWARE SCIENCE AND COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE-IJSSCI, 2022, 14 (01):
  • [47] A machine-learning analysis of the rationality of aggregate stock market forecasts
    Pierdzioch, Christian
    Risse, Marian
    [J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FINANCE & ECONOMICS, 2018, 23 (04) : 642 - 654
  • [48] Hybrid Human and Machine Learning Algorithms to Forecast the European Stock Market
    Creamer, German G.
    Sakamoto, Yasuaki
    Nickerson, Jeffrey V.
    Ren, Yong
    [J]. COMPLEXITY, 2023, 2023
  • [49] Stock Market Prediction with Gaussian Naive Bayes Machine Learning Algorithm
    Ampomah, Ernest Kwame
    Nyame, Gabriel
    Qin, Zhiguang
    Addo, Prince Clement
    Gyamfi, Enoch Opanin
    Gyan, Michael
    [J]. INFORMATICA-AN INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF COMPUTING AND INFORMATICS, 2021, 45 (02): : 243 - 256
  • [50] Financial forecasting: Advanced machine learning techniques in stock market analysis
    Yoo, Paul D.
    Kim, Maria H.
    Jan, Tony
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE INMIC 2005: 9TH INTERNATIONAL MULTITOPIC CONFERENCE - PROCEEDINGS, 2005, : 40 - 46