Potential impact of industrial transfer on PM2.5 and economic development under scenarios oriented by different objectives in Guangdong, China

For sustainable regional development, industrial transfer is an important trend that will potentially change the spatial and temporal pattern of air pollution and economic development. Aiming to better regulate industrial transfer and guide policy-making, this study proposes an assessment framework for industrial transfer that combines precise enterprise data, GIS technology and a 3-D air quality model. Taking Guangdong Province as an example, this study simulates the redistribution of 4015 high-pollution and high-energy-consumption (double -high) enterprises in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) to surrounding areas, and the potential impact on air quality is further evaluated. Three mutually independent transfer scenarios with different objectives are designed-ENV (ENVironment), ENT (ENTerprise), and GOV (GOVernment)-which aim to maximize benefits from the stand-point of the residents of Guangdong, the enterprises themselves, and local governments, respectively. Results show that Western Guangdong (WG), Northern Guangdong (NG), and Eastern Guangdong (EG) would be the primary transfer-in regions under the ENV, ENT, and GOV scenarios due to different resource endowment. Controlled by the different scenarios, the redistribution of enterprises presented different characteristics regarding the transport of pollutant emissions and economic added value between the PRD and surrounding areas. The average concentration of PM2.5 and the related population-weighted concentrations (PWC) showed a slight decrease over the PRD (-0.75 to-0.62 mu g/m3 and-0.35 to-0.49 mu g/m3 per person) but increased dramatically in surrounding areas under the three scenarios (0.46-7.68 mu g/m3 and 0.07-4.44 mu g/m3 per person). The transfer of double-high enterprises could potentially decrease the industrial fossil fuel consumption intensity (fossil energy consumption per unit of industrial GDP) of most of the cities while exacerbating pollution intensity (concentration of PM2.5 per unit of industrial GDP), reflecting the huge gap in the regional industrial develop-ment pattern in Guangdong Province at this stage, and illustrating the importance of emission control of these enterprises for improvement of regional air quality in the future. The research perspective on industrial transfer proposed in this study could provide a reference for future studies.