Prediction of total phosphorus in reservoir cascade systems

Reservoir cascade systems have attracted the attention of scientists worldwide. The present study investigates the cascade of five reservoirs (R1, R2, R3, R4, and R5) along a 192-km water channel system located in the state of Ceara, in the Brazilian semiarid region. This cascade system was implemented in 2012 to promote water availability and security to the capital of Ceara and the strategic industry and port complex of the region. However, these reservoirs have faced a progressive degradation of water quality, which has resulted in intense eutrophication and high-water treatment costs. The study evaluates the dynamics of water quality from 2013 to 2021 along this reservoir cascade (from R1 to R5). The results revealed that water quality did not improve along the cascade system, differently from previous studies on reservoirs interconnected by natural rivers. This was attributed to the low water residence time and low capacity of pollutant removal along the man-made water channel system, as well as to the high internal phosphorus loads of the reservoirs. Multiple regression models involving the explanatory variables of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, chlorophyll-a, cyanobacteria, transparency, rainfall, and volume from upstream reservoirs were obtained to determine total phosphorus concentration in downstream reservoirs, considering different combinations of reservoir pairs in the cascade and different time delays. A clear trend of R2 decline with the distance between the upstream and downstream reservoirs was observed. For example, the R2 values for the correlations adjusted between R1 and R2 (48 km), R1 and R3 (172 km), R1 and R4 (178 km), and R1 and R5 (192 km) were 0.66, 0.32, 0.22, and 0.12, respectively. On the other hand, the adoption of time delays of the order of the cumulative residence times of the reservoirs promoted a significant improvement in the R2 values. For instance, the best correlation adjusted between R1 and R5 improved from R2 = 0.12 to 0.69 by considering a time delay of 21 months. This suggests that previous data from upstream reservoirs can be used to predict current and future total phosphorus concentration in downstream reservoirs. The results from this study are important to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of water quality in reservoir cascade systems and thus improve water resources management, especially in drylands.