The food price situation in Central Asia

The COVID-19 pandemic has had serious implications for food security around the world. The Russian-Ukrainian military conflict led to another surge in food prices. Central Asia, despite its diverse levels of economic development, has undoubtedly experienced a tangible shock from the food crisis of recent years. Food inflation in the region has many aspects to it. It was initially determined by global food price trends and the depreciation of national currencies during the pandemic period. Several national factors affected the local food situation: a series of adverse weather conditions, the different fiscal consequences of pandemic, and national strategic policies in support of agri-food exports. The countries of the region used all regulatory measures to protect their markets - export restrictions and export quotas, import subsidies and VAT zeroing, as well as subsidies for production and support to consumers. The forecasts for food prices in the region in 2023/2024 are not optimistic: prices will remain relatively high, and future changes largely depend on the still volatile geopolitical situation. The impact of COVID-19 may have long-term consequences for Central Asia. Over the coming 10-20 years, the development of agriculture in the region will be dictated by the need to address the growing threats of resource shortages (thereby ensuring that urgent needs can still be met during a crisis situation), the modernisation of the currently prevalent models of food systems, and growing problems relating to biosafety and nutrition.