Future prediction of water balance using the SWAT and CA-Markov model using INMCM5 climate projections: a case study of the Silwani watershed (Jharkhand), India

The aim of this research was to simulate the future water balance of the Silwani watershed, Jharkhand, India, under the combined effect of land use and climate change based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov Chain model. The future climate prediction was done based on daily bias-corrected datasets of the INMCM5 climate model with Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 585 (SSP585), which represent the fossil fuel development of the world. After a successful model run, water balance components like surface runoff, groundwater contribution to stream flow, and ET were simulated. The anticipated change in land use/land cover (LULC) between 2020 and 2030 reflects a slight increase (3.9 mm) in groundwater contribution to stream flow while slight decrease in surface runoff (4.8 mm). The result of this research work helps the planners to plan any similar watershed for future conservation.