The trade and welfare effects of the belt and road initiative

被引：2
|
作者：
Gao, Meng [1 ]
Jin, Chenxin [2 ,6 ]
Jin, Wei [3 ,4 ,7 ,8 ]
Sheng, Bin [3 ,4 ,7 ,8 ]
Xu, Linpu [5 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Int Business & Econ, Sch Banking & Finance, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Nankai Univ, APEC Study Ctr, Tianjin, Peoples R China
[3] Nankai Univ, Inst Int Econ, Ctr Transnatl Studies, Sch Econ, Tianjin, Peoples R China
[4] Nankai Univ, Inst Int Econ, Sch Econ, Lab Econ Behav & Policy Simulat, Tianjin, Peoples R China
[5] Peking Univ, Sch Software & Microelect, Beijing, Peoples R China
[6] Nankai Univ, APEC Study Ctr, 94 Weijin Rd, Tianjin 300071, Peoples R China
[7] Nankai Univ, Inst Int Econ, Ctr Transnatl Studies, Sch Econ, 94 Weijin Rd, Tianjin 300071, Peoples R China
[8] Nankai Univ, Inst Int Econ, Sch Econ, Lab Econ Behav & Policy Simulat, 94 Weijin Rd, Tianjin 300071, Peoples R China
来源：
REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS | 2024年 / 32卷 / 02期
关键词：
belt and road initiative; trade and welfare effects; synthetic control method; CHINA; AGREEMENTS; GEOGRAPHY; GRAVITY;
D O I：
10.1111/roie.12665
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This paper evaluates the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). We estimate the partial trade effect of the BRI using the synthetic control method. By feeding the implied trade cost reduction into counterfactual equations, we simulate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the BRI based on the structural gravity model. We find that the BRI has greatly increased China's and BRI members' trade and welfare, with little impact on non-BRI members.
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页码：446 / 479
页数：34
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