Increase in demand for critical materials under IEA Net-Zero emission by 2050 scenario

Increasing the deployment of low-carbon technologies on a global scale is critical for mitigating climate change and achieving net-zero emissions (NZE) by 2050. Implementing such technologies requires a rapidly increasing supply of both critical and non-critical materials. We developed a scenario-based dynamic material stock flow model to calculate the critical material requirements of major low-carbon technologies under the newly released International Energy Agency (IEA) NZE by 2050 scenario. Our results show that most of the metal demand related to photovoltaics would reach its peak around 2035 and then gradually decline, whereas the demand for rare earth elements (REEs) continue to surge. Over the past decade, wind turbines have mainly been responsible for the consumption of neodymium iron boron (NdFeB) magnets containing REEs; however, this will soon be superseded by electric motors (EMs) primarily used in for electric vehicles (EVs). In the short term, increased recycling will have a relatively low impact on the demand for primary resources. With current recycling rates, the secondary supply of REEs will contribute <1% to the demand in 2050, however, aggressive recycling stra-tegies could increase the contribution to 35%. Furthermore, we contend that alternative technologies based on non-critical materials could address the mismatch between supply and demand to resolve the issues presented by material scarcity.