Future material demand for global silicon-based PV modules under net-zero emissions target until 2050

The surge in global solar photovoltaic (PV) deployment as a measure to combat climate change is undeniable. However, this growth comes with its own set of challenges, particularly concerning the materials required for silicon-based PV modules. In this study, we quantify future material demand for silicon-based PV modules, considering technological advancements in PV module efficiency and material intensity. The annual material demand is projected to increase significantly for indium (38-286 times), silver (4-27 times), and other materials (2-20 times) over the period from 2022 to 2050, depending on PV deployment scenarios. Indium and silver demand are notably influenced by PV technology choice. Cumulative indium demand during 2022-2050 could range from 0 kt (for 100 % passivated emitter and rear contact or tunnel oxide passivated contact PV) to 209 kt (for 100% perovskite-silicon four-terminal tandem PV). Cumulative silver demand during the same period could vary from 144 kt (for 100% passivated emitter and rear contact PV) to 1121 kt (for 100% silicon heterojunction PV). One promising approach to mitigate the increasing demand for primary materials is closed-loop recycling. By implementing efficient PV collection and recycling processes, cumulative primary material demand could be reduced by 10 % to 30 % between 2022 and 2050.