Industrial structure optimization under the rigid constraint of carbon peak in 2030: A perspective from industrial sectors

To explore how China can achieve sustainable economic development through industrial structure optimization of 28 sectors, this paper proposes a multi-objective economic-CO2 emission optimization model based on a rigid carbon peak constraint. Different development scenarios are set to reflect the tradeoff between economic development and CO2 emission control. The results reveal that (1) China can peak with 15,919.21 Mt. and 15,861.62 Mt. in 2030 under the emission control scenario and equilibrium development scenario, respectively. (2) The manufacturing sector (dominated by S11, S12 and S14), along with the electric power and heat production sector (S22) contribute most of the CO2 emissions in peak year. (3) After achieving the carbon peak, S11 has greater potential for economic growth and emission reduction; S12 and S14 will pay a higher cost to increase their emission reduction; while S22 can maintain stable output growth but has limited potential to reduce emissions. In addition, this study recommends that the construction of green manufacturing system and differentiated emission reduction policy system are necessary measures to reduce the carbon peak.