Estimation of Return Levels with Long Return Periods for Extreme Sea Levels by the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate Method

被引:1
|
作者
Ryden, Jesper [1 ]
机构
[1] Swedish Univ Agr Sci, Dept Energy & Technol, Unit Appl Stat & Math, Box 7032, S-75007 Uppsala, Sweden
来源
GEOHAZARDS | 2024年 / 5卷 / 01期
关键词
extreme values; GEV distribution; ACER method; return levels; sea level;
D O I
10.3390/geohazards5010008
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
Estimation of so-called return levels for environmental extremes is of importance for risk assessment. A particular challenge is to find estimates corresponding to long return periods, as uncertainties in the form of confidence intervals became too wide for practical use when applying conventional methodology where large portions of data are not used. A recently proposed technique, the Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER), makes effective use of all available data. For risk analysis related to nuclear infrastructure, usually located along a coastline, extreme sea levels are of concern. We demonstrate, for measurements of the sea level along the Swedish coast at locations close to nuclear power plants, that the methodology results in considerably shorter confidence intervals compared to conventional approaches.
引用
收藏
页码:166 / 175
页数:10
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