The future of industry 4.0 and supply chain resilience after the COVID-19 pandemic: Empirical evidence from a Delphi study

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused major supply chain disruptions and unveiled the pressing need to improve supply chain resilience (SCRES). Industry 4.0 (I4.0) is a promising lever; however, its future in supply chain risk management (SCRM) is highly uncertain and largely unexplored. This paper aims to evaluate I4.0 & PRIME;s potential to improve SCRES in a post-COVID-19 world. Based on current literature and multiple workshops, 13 future projections on potential I4.0 application areas in SCRM were developed. A two-round Delphi study among 64 SCRM experts with digital expertise was conducted to evaluate and discuss the projections regarding their probability of occurrence until 2030, their impact on SCRES, and their desirability. A fuzzy c-means algorithm was applied to cluster the projections based on the expert assessments. The expert evaluations led to three clusters on I4.0 application in SCRM: Four projections on generating data, increasing visibility, and building digital capabilities received considerable approval and are reliable to improve SCRES in 2030. Four projections enabling data sharing and processing were predominantly supported and demonstrated realization potential for 2030. Finally, five projections that require major supply network adaptations were deemed unlikely to improve SCRES in 2030. This paper answers several research calls by presenting empirical evidence on the pathway of I4.0 implementation in SCRM following the COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, it evaluates a holistic set of technologies and indicates prioritization potentials to achieve SCRES improvements.