This study determines the land cover change within and around Minalungao National Park in Nueva Ecija, Philippines. Landsat images (Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus - ETM+ and Landsat 8) with different time intervals (2001, 2014, 2021) were used in the analysis. The Semi Automatic Classification Plugin in Quantum Geographic Information System (QGIS) using the minimum distance classification algorithm was employed for the classification. The results establish four classifications of land cover: inland water, closed forest, open forest, and open/barren land. Accuracy assessments and kappa coefficients were accepted considerably. The result presented a dynamic land cover gain and loss related with different community activities. Both positive and negative activities affecting land cover were noted. Positive activities are related to forest restoration, ecotourism programs, and reports of tree-cutting activities. Moreover, negative activities are directly related with tree-cutting and livestock grazing. An alternative state of the protected area is also modelled based on land cover change around the protected area. This can be used to determine the most likely land cover status of Minalungao National Park if not established as a protected area.