The influence of the variability of weather conditions on predicting rain events in surrounding Jakarta

. The metropolis of Jakarta is a place where floods often occur which are detrimental to both property and life. Weather forecast information released by the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) is very important in anticipating this disaster. Hence, it is important to pay attention to the weather forecast accuracy. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of variations in accuracy in rain events in the Jakarta area including Central Jakarta, East Jakarta, West Jakarta, North Jakarta, South Jakarta, Bekasi, Tangerang, Depok, and Bogor as known Jabotabek. School of Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics or STMKG Weather Care developed voluntary observations of weather conditions, especially rain events. Respondents filled out the form whether there was rain in the place where they lived and would be evaluated using the dichotomous method. This study shows the accuracy of rain prediction in the Jabotabek area of 70.1%, with prediction failures generally being an overestimation. The highest number of correct predictions occurred when it was not raining. Moreover, the best accuracy is in Bekasi City, and South Jakarta and West Jakarta are the worst. The evaluation confirms that it is not easy to predict rain events in a detailed area and the prediction terms used.