Drivers of spatiotemporal variations in traditional heating under carbon neutrality commitment: Evidence from China at city-level

Coal-fired winter heating (CFH), one of the humankind's most carbon-intensive activities, imposes a considerable burden on the environment, society, and economy. To support the sustainable development of cities, this study constructed a CFH inventory characterized by long time series and high spatial resolution, including 187 prefecture-level cities in China. Based on the inventory, the life-cycle environmental and social economic impacts of CFH since 2011 were analyzed. Temporospatial variations, driving factors, and optimal heat combinations were further explored. In accordance with the results, the carbon footprint of CFH in China was 1.14 billion tons CO2-eq in 2020. The social cost in 2020 decreased to $ 139.7 billion in 2020 compared with $ 149.9 billion in 2017. Scattered heating activities only comprised only around 27% of heating fuel coal consumption but accounted for 60% of the total social costs. Region-specific heating policies are necessary because driving factors significantly vary among cities. Promoting central heating systems in most parts of China has mitigated the conflict between social costs and heating demand. However, the scattered heating systems still need to improve the development of sustainable winter heating in northwestern China. The scientific and reasonable top-level design of heating methods is highly required because clean heating methods may take more than 7 years to realize their environmental-economic co-benefits compared with CFH.