Does a Positive Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) Nasal Screen Predict the Risk for MRSA Skin and Soft Tissue Infection?

Background: Skin and soft tissue infections (SSTIs) are often caused by gram-positive bacteria that colonize the skin. Given the overuse of antibiotics, SSTIs are increasingly caused by resistant bacteria, including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Guidance on the utility of MRSA nasal screening for MRSA SSTI is limited. Objective: To determine whether MRSA nasal screening predicts the risk of MRSA SSTIs. Methods: This was a single-center, retrospective cohort study of adult patients with an SSTI diagnosis that had MRSA nasal screening and wound cultures obtained within 48 hours of starting antibiotics. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated using VassarStats. Pretest and posttest probabilities were estimated with Microsoft Excel. Results: A total of 884 patient encounters were reviewed between December 1, 2018, and October 31, 2021, and 300 patient encounters were included. The prevalence of MRSA SSTI was 18.3%. The MRSA nasal colonization had a sensitivity of 63.6%, specificity of 93.9%, positive predictive value of 70.0% (95% CI = 55.2%-81.7%), negative predictive value of 92.0% (95% CI = 87.7%-94.9%), positive likelihood ratio of 10.39 (95% CI = 6.12-17.65), negative likelihood ratio of 0.39 (95% CI = 0.27-0.55), positive posttest probability of 70.0%, and negative posttest probability of 8.0%. Conclusions: Given the high positive likelihood ratio, a positive MRSA nasal screen was associated with a large increase in the probability of MRSA SSTI at our institution, and a negative MRSA nasal screen was associated with a small but potentially significant decrease in the probability of MRSA SSTI.