Effect of climate change on the distribution of temperate species in Oaxaca, Mexico

Background: Climate change is becoming more evident, and distribution models are useful tools to predict the effect it might cause on biodiversity. Hypotheses: Under climate change scenarios, temperate forests species of the genus Pinus and Quercus will undergo reductions in their distribution area and changes in their spatial pattern. Studied species: Arbutus xalapensis, Clethra mexicana, Pinus devoniana, Pinus oocarpa, Pinus teocote, Quercus acutifolia, Quercus castanea, Quercus crassifolia, Quercus elliptica, Quercus magnoliifolia and Quercus rugosa. Study site: Oaxaca Methods: Two scenarios were constructed, an optimistic one (SSP-1 and RCP 2-6) and a pessimistic one (SSP-5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2030 and 2090. A total of 1,383 records and eight bioclimatic variables were used, along with seven learning algorithms, evaluated using ROC and TSS metrics. Results: An ensemble model was obtained, in which the most important contributing variables were precipitation of the wettest quarter, mean annual temperature, minimum temperature of the coldest month and annual temperature range. The species that showed the highest ROC values were Clethra mexicana (0.91) and Arbutus xalapensis (0.89) with TSS values of 0.68 and 0.60, respectively. Conclusions: Regardless of the scenario, by the year 2090 all species of Pinus and Quercus will reduce their potential distribution. Therefore, it is urgent to establish conservation policies.