Prediction of risk factors for scrub typhus from 2006 to 2019 based on random forest model in Guangzhou, China

Objectives: Scrub typhus is an increasingly serious public health problem, which is becoming the most common vector-borne disease in Guangzhou. This study aimed to analyse the correlation between scrub typhus incidence and potential factors and rank the importance of influential factors.Methods: We collected monthly scrub typhus cases, meteorological variables, rodent density (RD), Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and land use type in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2019. Correlation analysis and a random forest model were used to identify the risk factors for scrub typhus and predict the importance rank of influencing factors related to scrub typhus incidence.Results: The epidemiological results of the scrub typhus cases in Guangzhou between 2006 and 2019 showed that the incidence rate was on the rise. The results of correlation analysis revealed that a positive relationship between scrub typhus incidence and meteorological factors of mean temperature (T-mean), accumulative rainfall (RF), relative humidity (RH), sunshine hours (SH), and NDVI, RD, population density, and green land coverage area (all p < 0.001). Additionally, we tested the relationship between the incidence of scrub typhus and the lagging meteorological factors through cross-correlation function, and found that incidence was positively correlated with 1-month lag T-mean, 2-month lag RF, 2-month lag RH, and 6-month lag SH (all p < 0.001). Based on the random forest model, we found that the T-mean was the most important predictor among the influential factors, followed by NDVI.Conclusions: Meteorological factors, NDVI, RD, and land use type jointly affect the incidence of scrub typhus in Guangzhou. Our results provide a better understanding of the influential factors correlated with scrub typus, which can improve our capacity for biological monitoring and help public health authorities to formulate disease control strategies.