Analysis of Extreme Sea Surface Temperature along the Western Coastal area of Chungnam: Current Status and Future Projections

Western coastal area of Chungnam, including Cheonsu Bay and Garorim Bay, has suffered from hot and cold extremes. In this study, the extreme sea surface temperature on the western coast of Chungnam was analyzed using the quantile regression method, which extracts the linear regression values in all quantiles. The regional MOHID (MOdelo HIDrodinamico) model, with a high resolution on a 1/60o grid, was constructed to reproduce the extreme sea surface temperature. For future prediction, the SSP5-8.5 scenario data of the CMIP6 model were used to simulate sea surface temperature variability. Results showed that the extreme sea surface temperature of Cheonsu Bay in August 2017 was successfully simulated, and this extreme sea surface temperature had a significant negative correlation with the Pacific decadal variability index. As a result of future climate prediction, it was found that an average of 2.9 degrees C increased during the simulation period of 86 years in the Chungnam west coast and there was a seasonal difference (3.2 degrees C in summer, 2.4 degrees C in winter). These seasonal differences indicate an increase in the annual temperature range, suggesting that extreme events may occur more frequently in the future.