Chance or threat? - expected changes in productivity of silver fir Abies alba Mill. stands in Poland

The study was carried out to determine reliable prediction of perspectives for silver fir Abies alba, one of the most important forest-forming species in upland and mountainous areas of Poland, according to available and up-to-date projections of expected climate changes. Based on key factors, shaping the actual productivity of the species in Poland, a model describing the site productivity, expressed by static site index (SSI) of silver fir was developed and applied to four main climate change scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 provided by global WordClim service. Based on the developed model, it can be concluded that generally the expected climate changes should be considered rather as a threat than an opportunity for the expansion of silver fir in Poland. The future productivity of silver fir is expected to decrease, except the higher mountain locations and certain areas in the northern part of Poland. Despite probable unfavourable changes in the conditions for silver fir, the role of the species will remain very high, especially in mountainous areas where increased productivity can be expected and considering the high potential of the species to coexist in different types of mixed stands.