A novel change detection and threshold-based ensemble of scenarios pyramid for flood extent mapping using Sentinel-1 data

Flood disasters destroy infrastructure, disrupt ecosystem processes, adversely affect social and economic activities and cause human fatalities. As such, flood extent mapping (FEM) is critical to mitigate these impacts. Specifically, FEM is essential to mitigate adverse impacts through early warning, efficient response during evacuation, search, rescue and recovery. Furthermore, accurate FEM is crucial for policy formulation, planning and management, rehabilitation, and promoting community resilience for sustainable occupation and use of floodplains. Recently, remote sensing has become valuable in flood studies. However, whereas free passive remote sensing images have been common input into predictive models, damage assessment and FEM, their utility is constrained by clouds during flooding events. Conversely, microwave-based data is unconstrained by clouds, hence is important for FEM. Hence, to increase the reliability and accuracy of FEM using Sentinel-1 radar data, we propose a three-step process that builds an ensemble of scenarios pyramid (ESP) based on change detection and thresholding technique. We deployed the ESP technique and tested it on a use-case based on two, five and 10 images. The usecase calculated three co-polarized Vertical-Vertical (VV) and three cross-polarized Vertical-Horizontal (VH) normalized difference flood index scenarios to form six binary classified FEMs at the base. We ensembled the base scenarios to three dual-polarized centre FEMs, and likewise the centre scenarios to a final pinnacle flood extent map. The base, centre and pinnacle scenarios were validated using six binary classification performance metrics. The results show that the ESP increased the base-to-pinnacle minimum classification performance metrics with overall accuracy, Cohen's Kappa, intersect over union, recall, F1-score, and Matthews Correlation coefficient of 93.204%, 0.864, 0.865, 0.870, 0.927, and 0.871 respectively. The study also established that the VV channels were superior in FEM than VH at the ESP base. Overall, this study demonstrates the efficacy of the ESP for operational flood disaster management.