Hybrid reliability evaluation of arch dam during long-term service with multi-dimensional parallelepiped convex model

The loads and material parameters of arch dams during long-term service have multi-source uncertainty, but they are usually disregarded by traditional convex models, which is unfavorable for reliability evaluation. This work is a contribution to study the multi-source uncertainty in the reliability analysis of arch dams combining the multi-dimensional parallelogram convex model and the fuzzy theory. A novel multi-dimensional parallelogram convex model is firstly constructed, and its correlation angle is utilized to indicate the multi-source uncertainty of the arch dam parameters. Subsequently, the safety degree of the arch dam is evaluated to determine the correlation angle between the correlation parameters combining with the comprehensive method. Afterwards, considering with the fuzzy failure criterion of the arch dam, hybrid reliability indexes are proposed, probably failure paths are explored, and the dynamic reliability are further calculated. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is validated employing numerical simulation of the Jinping CYRILLIC CAPITAL LETTER BYELORUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN I arch dam. The results indicate that the methodology can evaluate the reliability and explore the possible failure modes of the arch dam during long-term service.