The Increasing Role of Seasonal Rainfall in Western US Summer Streamflow

Summer streamflow variations strongly affect water supply reliability and ecological functioning of western U.S. (WUS) streams. Traditional snow-based forecasts of summer streamflow are becoming less accurate with warming-induced reductions in winter snow accumulation. This reflects a rising importance of competing runoff-generating processes in controlling summer streamflow variations, primarily an increasing role of rainfall in contrast to snowmelt. Here, based on a snowmelt-rainfall tracking algorithm applied to two hydrological models, we show that cool-season rainfall provides an important volumetric contribution to summer streamflow for many WUS streams in the current climate, and this contribution will increase under climate warming, especially in years with warm snow droughts and abnormally dry summers. We also show that seasonal rainfall (warm-/cool-seasons) dominates the variability of summer streamflow across similar to 70% area of WUS. We show that an increasing warm-season rainfall contribution to summer streamflow (largely replacing snowmelt) results in reduced summer streamflow predictability.