Is it the school of fish or the size of the pond that matters? An experimental examination of reference group effects in secondary school

Do teachers consider not only an individual student's performance and abilities but also the number of motivated peers in a class as a frame of reference when deciding whether or not to recommend them for academic high school? Given the limited number of places available in such schools in the short run, we argue that a student's chances of being recommended depend on the number of competitors and especially whether they already secured a recommendation for themselves. Using choice experiments presenting groups of three to five students to pre-service secondary school teachers in Switzerland, we show how the individual probability for a recommendation for the most advantageous school track depends on the size of the reference group. Furthermore, individual chances are especially affected by the number of other students in the group that the teacher deems fit for academic high school: The higher the share of competitors in the reference group with a recommendation, the smaller the individual chances. These effects are robust across samples, methods, and with respect to alternative mechanisms.