Nomogram for predicting pathological response to neoadjuvant treatment in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer: Data from a phase III clinical trial

Purpose: This study aimed to establish a nomogram using routinely available clinicopathological parameters to predict the pathological response in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer (LAGC) undergoing neoadjuvant treatment. Materials and Methods: We conducted this study based on the ongoing Neo-CRAG trial, a prospective study focused on preoperative treatment in patients with LAGC. A total of 221 patients who underwent surgery following neoadjuvant chemotherapy (nCT) or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between June 2013 and July 2022 were included in the analysis. We defined complete or near-complete pathological regression and ypN0 as good response (GR), and determined the prognostic value of GR by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Eventually, a nomogram for predicting GR was developed based on statistically identified predictors through multivariate logistic regression analysis and internally validated by the bootstrap method. Results: GR was confirmed in 54 patients (54/221, 24.4%). Patients who achieved GR had a longer progression-free survival and overall survival. Then, five independent factors, including pretreatment tumor differentiation, clinical T stage, monocyte count, CA724 level, and the use of nCRT, were identified. Based on these predictors, the nomogram was established with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.777 (95% CI, 0.705-0.850) and a bias-corrected AUC of 0.752. Conclusion: A good pathological response after neoadjuvant treatment was associated with an improved prognosis in LAGC patients. The nomogram we established exhibits a high predictive capability for GR, offering potential value in devising personalized and precise treatment strategies for LAGC patients.