Higher education expansion and domestic value added in exports: Theory and evidence from China

This paper analyzes the impact of China's higher education expansion on domestic value added in exports. To be specific, we firstly construct a nested CES production function model, with import inputs being complementary to skilled labors, and substitutable to unskilled labors. By exploiting China's higher education expansion as a quasi-natural experiment, this paper accurately examines the causal effect of the human capital expansion on the domestic value-added in exports. The results show that human capital expansion has negative effects on the domestic value-added in exports, and this result is driven by import inputs increase and processing trade engagement. We also find that the effect is more prominent for processing trade, foreign-invested firms, high-tech firms and disciplines of science and engineering.