Global potential distribution, climate dynamics, and essential climate variables for Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae) using the CLIMEX model

In economic terms, invasive species pose risks to human interests in management systems related to agriculture, animal health, and forestry, as they cause damage and change the composition of native species. Through modeling, ecological studies can help identify favorable climatic environments for species. Using biological factors and climate data, the CLIMEX software can forecast a species' seasonal phenology and dispersal locations across time. The Caribbean fruit fly, Anastrepha suspensa (Diptera: Tephritidae), was modeled using CLIMEX to assess the variables affecting its population and dispersal processes. The results show A. suspensa climatic suitability in South America, Central America, Africa, and Oceania. The most critical adaptation happens in the Caribbean and Central America between September and December, while it happens in South America between February and April. The sensitivity analysis showed that the species is more sensitive to temperature changes. Our results were validated through field data reports. Modeling has significant implications since it may be used to develop control and monitoring methods in situations and locations with favorable climates for A. suspensa, particularly in cases when the pest is not present.