The Impacts of Urban Growth Drivers on the Spatial and Temporal Pattern of City Expansion

Urban growth drivers are critical components of urbanization. Potential drivers only drive the city development, which leads to the formation of new growth drivers, and this viscos loop leads to urban sprawl. It is necessary to investigate the influence of growth drivers on the city's growth pattern. The objectives of this study are to assess the spatiotemporal change in the city's growth pattern and to determine which growth factors are significantly driving the growth. This research looks into the various reasons of urban sprawl in Surat, India, which is located in the western region of the country. According to a 5-year spatial analysis of urban expansion, the city developed from 34.71 sq. km in 1991 to 158.32 sq. km in 2021, increasing roughly 4.12 sq. km of built-up area per year. The Landscape Expansion Index is employed in the study to understand growth. The urban land density curve demonstrated that the city could be easily separated into the central business district, the inner city, and the suburbs. The steepness of the curve indicated that the core region witnessed compact development, inner urban areas experienced uniform development, and suburban areas experienced scattered growth. Further, Distance and direction analysis confirmed that the urban growth drivers such as proximate to significant facilities, government interventions and planning efforts, environmental parameters, socioeconomic parameters, and topographic features are having an effect on the urban growth pattern of Surat city. To classify the type of urban development, the Landscape Expansion Index was calculated, and the resulting value indicates that almost infill and edge expansion development occurred within 9 km of the city center. Beyond the 9 km distance, the majority of the city's growth since 2016 has occurred in leapfrog fashion in all directions. The current study will aid in determining the type of city expansion, whether compact or sprawl. These spatial analyses will help municipal planners and policymakers establish staged strategies for systematic land use and reducing the negative consequences of haphazard growth.