Assessing the Precision of Surgery Duration Estimation: A Retrospective Study

Background and Objectives: The operating room (OR) is considered the highest source of cost and earnings. Therefore, measuring OR efficiency, which means how time and resources are allocated precisely for their intended purposes in the operating room is crucial. Both overestimation and underestimation negatively impact OR efficiency Therefore, hospitals defined metrics to Measuring OR Effeciency. Many studies have discussed OR efficiency and how surgery scheduling accuracy plays a vital role in increasing OR efficiency. This study aims to evaluate OR efficiency using surgery duration accuracy. Methods: This retrospective, quantitative study was conducted at King Abdulaziz Medical City. We extracted data on 97,397 surgeries from 2017 to 2021 from the OR database. The accuracy of surgery duration was identified by calculating the duration of each surgery in minutes by subtracting the time of leaving the OR from the time of entering the OR. Based on the scheduled duration, the calculated durations were categorized as either underestimation or overestimation. Descriptive and bivariate analyses (Chi-square test) were performed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Results: Sixty percent out of the 97,397 surgeries performed were overestimated compared to the time scheduled by the surgeons. Patient characteristics, surgical division, and anesthesia type showed statistically significant differences (p <0.05) in their OR estimation. Conclusion: Significant proportion of procedures have overestimated. This finding provides insight into the need for improvement. Recommendations: It is recommended to enhance the surgical scheduling method using machine learning (ML) models to include patient characteristics, department, anesthesia type, and even the performing surgeon increases the accuracy of duration estimation. Then, evaluate the performance of an ML model in future studies.