Using Maxent in Quantifying the Impacts of Climate Change in Land Suitability of Abaca (Musa testilis) in Caraga Region, Philippines

As one of the country's top abaca-producing regions, the Caraga region is experiencing the impacts of climate change. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the suitability of abaca using Maxent were quantified to provide knowledge to the extent in 2021-2040 and 2041-2060 with the EC-Earth3-Veg GCM under different socioeconomic pathways scenarios. Maxent models show good and acceptable reliability with an AUC score range of 0.794-0.855. Using a threshold of >= 0.5, the suitable area of the Caraga region for the current period is 210,700 hectares. The suitability increases in 2021-2040 and 2041-2060, specifically in SSP 126. The land area suitable for abaca exhibited a trend toward a minor decrease in some of the different climate change scenarios. However, the suitable land area increased when compared to the current period. Maxent species distribution models are a valuable tool for predicting how climate change would affect the spread of abaca species.