Contagion Effect on Business Failure: A Spatial Analysis of the Hotel Sector

This article analyzes the contagion effect on business failure, focusing on the Spanish hotel sector. The sample consists of 3,948 hotel micro-, small, and medium-sized enterprises in the 2012-2015 period and includes variables related to characteristics of the hotel and tourist destination. The results show that the contagion effect is significant, increasing the explanatory capacity of the model. Moreover, the results show that the analysis of the contagion effect should consider not only its simultaneous impact but also that deferred over time on the probability of failure. Thereby, this study found that after the initial shock, the contagion effect decreases and changes its sign from negative to positive in the fourth year.