Humoral vaccine response and breakthrough infections in kidney transplant recipients during the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide cohort study

Background Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) experienced reduced SARS-CoV-2 vaccine response and were at increased risk of severe COVID-19. It is unknown if level of vaccine induced anti-receptor binding domain IgG (anti-RBD IgG) correlates with protection from and survival following COVID-19. We aimed to evaluate the effect of vaccine response on risk of breakthrough infections (BTI) and COVID-19 death in KTRs. Methods We performed a nationwide study, examining the competing risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19 related/unrelated death, and vaccine efficacy as assessed by level of anti-RBD IgG response 4-10 weeks after each vaccination. The study included all KTR in Norway alive and with a functioning graft on February 20th, 2020, and events after November 11th, 2022 were right-censored. A pre-pandemic reference-cohort from January 1st 2019 to January 1st 2020 was included to evaluate excess mortality. The study was conducted at Oslo University Hospital, Rikshospitalet, Norway. Findings The study included 3607 KTRs (59 [48-70] years) with a functioning graft at February 20th, 2020, who received (median [IQR]) 4 [3-4] vaccines (range 2-6, 99% mRNA). Anti-RBD IgG was measured in 12 701 serum samples provided by 3213 KTRs. Vaccine response was assessed 41 [31-57] days after vaccination. A total of 1090 KTRs were infected with SARS-CoV-2, 1005 (92%) were BTI, and vaccine response did not protect against BTI. The hazard ratio for COVID-19 related death 40 days post-infection was 1.71 (95% CI: 1.14, 2.56) comparing vaccine response levels (& GE;5 vs. & GE;5000 BAU/mL). No excess non-COVID-19 mortality was registered in KTRs surviving SARS-CoV-2 infection compared to a 2019 pre-pandemic reference. Interpretation Our findings suggested that SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccine response did not predict protection against infection, but prevention of fatal disease progression in KTRs and greater vaccine response further reduced the risk of COVID-19 death. No excess non-COVID-19 mortality was seen during the pandemic. 2023;60: Published 2023 https://doi.org/10. 1016/j.eclinm.2023. 102035