Prediction of solar cycle 25: applications and comparison

被引：0

作者：

Penza, Valentina ^{[1
]}

Bertello, Luca ^{[2
]}

Cantoresi, Matteo ^{[1
]}

Criscuoli, Serena ^{[2
]}

Berrilli, Francesco ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Roma Tor Vergata, Dipartimento Fis, Via Ric Sci 1, I-00133 Rome, Italy

[2] Natl Solar Observ, 3665 Discovery Dr, Boulder, CO 80303 USA

来源：

RENDICONTI LINCEI-SCIENZE FISICHE E NATURALI | 2023年 / 34卷 / 03期

关键词：

Sun; activity; solar cycle; STRATOSPHERIC OZONE; RADIO FLUX; IRRADIANCE; VARIABILITY; SHAPE;

D O I：

10.1007/s12210-023-01184-y

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Solar activity affects the heliosphere in different ways. Variations in particles and radiation that impact the Earth's atmosphere, climate, and human activities often in disruptive ways. Consequently, the ability to forecast solar activity across different temporal scales is gaining increasing significance. In this study, we present predictions for solar cycle 25 of three solar activity indicators: the core-to-wing ratio of Mg II at 280 nm, the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm-widely recognized proxies for solar UV emission-and the total solar irradiance, a natural driver of Earth's climate. Our predictions show a very good agreement with measurements of these activity indicators acquired during the ascending phase of solar cycle 25, representing the most recent data available at the time of writing.

引用

下载

页码：663 / 670

页数：8

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