Significant wave height modelling and simulation of the monsoon-influenced South China Sea coast

The modelling of ocean wave dynamics and future possible scenario simulations is crucial as coastal communities with offshore and shipping industries can be impacted. Therefore, this study modelled and simulated the sig-nificant wave height (SWH) dynamics for both long-term (decadal) and northeast monsoons using a discrete-time stochastic process. These processes were successfully performed by applying the data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) database at the offshore point of Terengganu, Malaysia, in the South China Sea. The SWH time series were analysed and modelled by decomposing the series into non -stationary and stationary components. Consequently, the five-term Fourier series was adequate to model the non-stationary component for long-term and northeast monsoon time series. Meanwhile, the stationary component followed the autoregressive AR(2) process with stationary white noise residual fitted to t location -scale distribution. The model simulated the significant wave, which well-represented the time series behav-iour. Thus, the simulation outcome could contribute to coastal response studies. These contributions included long-term prediction of coastal response, investigation of coastal response during the northeast monsoon season, and further development of other seasonal component models influencing the South China Sea.