Forecasting the rate of socio-economic development of healthcare in the Russian Federation taking into account the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic

被引：0
|
作者：
Ivanova, Tatiana [1 ]
机构：
[1] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Econ, 32, Nakhimovsky Ave, Moscow 117218, Russia
来源：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTHCARE TECHNOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT | 2023年 / 20卷 / 04期
关键词：
healthcare; socio-economic development; assessment methodology; rate of change; integral indicator; forecasting; COVID-19; pandemic; black swan; alternative reality; comparative analysis; EXPENDITURE; LANDSCAPE; SCALE;
D O I：
10.1504/IJHTM.2023.134456
中图分类号：
R19 [保健组织与事业（卫生事业管理）];
学科分类号：
摘要：
The paper provides a forecast of the socio-economic development of healthcare before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and taking into account its impact. The study is divided into two blocks: 2009-2018 with a forecast up to 2022 (alternative reality, where the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was not taken into account) and 2011-2020 with a forecast up to 2024 (actual reality). For this purpose, a methodology for assessing the pace of healthcare development has been developed and 126 forecast graphs have been built. A comparative analysis of the forecasts for the two periods according to the developed formula mathematically proves that the COVID-19 pandemic was a bifurcation point that launched the mechanism of the "black swan" theory and worsened all the emerging trends in the socio-economic development of healthcare in the Russian Federation over the past 10 years!
引用
收藏
页码：365 / 391
页数：28
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] SOCIO-ECONOMIC BURDEN OF COVID-19 IN RUSSIAN FEDERATION
    Kolbin, A.
    Gomon, J.
    Balykina, Y.
    Belousov, D.
    Ivanov, I.
    [J]. VALUE IN HEALTH, 2020, 23 : S555 - S555
  • [2] Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the socio-economic development of the region
    Golovanov, O. A.
    Tyrsin, A. N.
    Vasilyeva, E. V.
    [J]. EKONOMIKA I MATEMATICESKIE METODY-ECONOMICS AND MATHEMATICAL METHODS, 2023, 59 (02): : 54 - 67
  • [3] The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic and sustainability
    Wei, Xueli
    Li, Lijing
    Zhang, Fan
    [J]. ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE AND POLLUTION RESEARCH, 2021, 28 (48) : 68251 - 68260
  • [4] Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic in the US
    Barlow, Jonathan
    Vodenska, Irena
    [J]. ENTROPY, 2021, 23 (06)
  • [5] The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on socio-economic and sustainability
    Xueli Wei
    Lijing Li
    Fan Zhang
    [J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2021, 28 : 68251 - 68260
  • [6] Problems of ensuring sustainable socio-economic development of Russian regions in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic
    Ruslan, Abramov A.
    Leonid, Zhigun A.
    Maxim, Sokolov S.
    Evgeny, Kochetkov P.
    [J]. VOPROSY ISTORII, 2021, 11 (03) : 119 - 124
  • [7] Assessing the Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Regions' Socio-Economic Development: The Case of Ukraine
    Hryhoruk, Pavlo
    Khrushch, Nila
    Grygoruk, Svitlana
    Gorbatiuk, Kateryna
    Prystupa, Liudmyla
    [J]. EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, 2021, 10 (01): : 63 - 80
  • [8] The Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Syrian Refugees in Turkey
    Memisoglu, Fulya
    Ozkil, Altan
    Kilinc, Tuna
    [J]. ULUSLARARASI ILISKILER-INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 2024, 21 (83): : 61 - 80
  • [9] The Socio-Economic Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Syrian Refugees in Turkey
    Memisoglu, Fulya
    Ozkil, Altan
    Kilinc, Tuna
    [J]. ULUSLARARASI ILISKILER-INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, 2024,
  • [10] COVID-19 Pandemic: Assessment of Current Strategies and Socio-economic Impact
    Bhargava, Anushka
    Dahiya, Praveen
    [J]. JOURNAL OF HEALTH MANAGEMENT, 2022, 24 (03) : 466 - 477
12345