Modeling impacts of climate change on the geographic distribution and abundances of Tamarindus indica in Tigray region, Ethiopia

被引:2
|
作者
Gufi, Yirga [1 ]
Manaye, Ashenafi [2 ]
Tesfamariam, Berihu [1 ]
Abrha, Haftu [3 ,4 ,5 ]
Tesfaye, Musse [6 ]
Hintsa, Sibhatleab [7 ]
机构
[1] Ethiopian Forest Dev, Mekelle Ctr, Mekelle, Ethiopia
[2] Tigray Inst Policy Studies, Mekelle, Ethiopia
[3] Mekelle Univ, Inst Climate & Soc, Mekelle, Ethiopia
[4] Univ Felix Houphouet Boigny, Abidjan, Cote Ivoire
[5] Mohammed VI Polytech Univ, Lot 660, Ben Guerir 43150, Morocco
[6] Tech Univ Dresden, Inst Int Forestry & Forest Prod, D-01737 Tharandt, Germany
[7] Tigray Agr Res Inst, Abergelle Agr Res Ctr, Woldia, Ethiopia
关键词
Abundance; Climate change; Future distribution; Maximum entropy (MaxEnt); Tamarindus indica; SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS; L; FABACEAE; TREE; PREDICTION; SCENARIOS; HIGHLANDS; ACCURACY; PATTERNS; SHIFTS; SOIL;
D O I
10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e17471
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Tamarindus indica is a multipurpose dry land species in sub-Saharan that is traditionally used to build resilience into the farming system. The species is highly threatened and listed on the IUCN Red List. However, information on how climatic condition locally influences its ecological distribution is limited. This study investigates the current and future suitable habitat for the species in the Tigray region, in northern Ethiopia. A total of 220 species presence points and the number of T. indica within a 50 m x 50 m plot were collected. In addition, 19 bioclimatic variables, 3 topographic variables and soil data were used to model the impact of future climate conditions under two Representative Concentration Path Ways (RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5). MaxEnt-v-3.3.3 k, Diva-GIS-7.5, and GIS10.6 were used to model the current and future distribution. SPSSv-26 was also utilized to analyze the relationship between the species' abundance and environmental variables. Results showed that the environmental variables determining most for the distribution of T. indica were mean diurnal range (Bio2 (56.9%)); temperature seasonality (Bio4 (10.3%)) and temperature annual range (Bio7 (9.2%)). The model suggested that the current distribution of T. indica covers an area of 9209 km(2) (14.04%). This would have increased to 29,363 km(2) (44.78%) and 11,046 km(2) (16.85%) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Compared to the high-impact areas, new gains of suitable areas (net 25,081 km(2)) for the future distribution of the species were predicted in 2070-RCP4.5. Altitude, rainfall, temperature, silt contents of soils and soil pH have significant contributions (P-value<0.05) to the abundance of T. indica. However, altitude has a negative relationship with the abundance of T. indica. Additional studies to understand population trends and other threats are recommended.
引用
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页数:12
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