The increasing climate inequalities of urban carbon emissions: The distributional effect of low-carbon city pilot policy

The low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy has been implemented for >10 years in China. While previous studies have proved its effectiveness in facilitating low-carbon transformation, the distributional effects of the LCCP have not been fully explored to address the potential climate inequalities across cities. This study employs the changes-in-changes (CIC) model to explore the distributional effect of China's LCCP policy on carbon emission intensity (CEI). Our results show that the LCCP effectively reduces CEI, but its effect is uneven across cities and only lasts for the short term. In addition, the climate benefits of the LCCP diminish at higher quantiles of CEI, where urgent actions are required for CEI reduction. This unequal effect is driven by LCCP's regressive impact on productivity, leading to a widening gap among cities and undermining climate justice. This study raises the importance of equity concerns in climate policy effects. We call for policy efforts on regional coordination and fair distribution of climate responsibilities, technological transfers and financial assistance to complement climate policies.