Lasting scars: The long-term effects of school closures on earnings

We examine the impact of education disruptions on earnings in the long term using a natural experiment. In particular, we estimate the effects of school closures due to the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia on earnings 20 years later. Our results point to substantial and lasting effects: those in first grade at the time of the shock earn about 7-9 percent less 20 years after the shock than unaffected cohorts just younger than them. Impacts are larger for those in the bottom half of the income distribution. We find that selection into lower-paying sectors (possibly due to higher risk aversion) explains about 15 percent of the overall effect. However, the negative effect of education disruption persists despite affected cohorts staying in school longer, being more likely to work for the public sector and having open-ended contracts.